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Searching for a bottom in the housing market

Sales look like they could rebound soon, but you can't say the same for prices.

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Sales in the decimated housing market may finally be bottoming, but don't expect home prices to stop dropping before mid-2010 at the earliest, analysts and economists say.

Indeed, prices in the battered housing market could get a lot worse before they get better as an avalanche of specialized adjustable rate mortgages, known as option ARMs and Alt-A mortgages, are slated to reset over the next 18 to 24 months, and rising unemployment causes a surge in the number of prime mortgages going into default. All of this is expected to trigger another round of foreclosures and cause home prices to tumble at least another 20% before the market rebounds, according to market analysts and economists.

Market bulls believe home prices could bottom in the second half of 2010, but the bears warn it could be 2013 before they finally trough. And once prices do reach a low, it could be years before they significantly rebound.

"This is clearly the worst housing crisis since the Depression," says John Burns, president of John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Losses from the housing meltdown totaled $3.6 trillion at the end of 2008, and will likely approach $5 trillion by the time the crisis ends, predicts Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors.

Nevertheless, there have been signs in recent months that the industry may be stabilizing -- at least when it comes to sales. Consumer confidence in May shot up to its highest level in eight months, housing starts jumped more than 17% in May from the previous month, and most importantly, a recent report by the National Association of Realtors showssales of existing homes climbed 2.9% in April. We are at or near bottom in terms of sales," says Yun. "We are seeing strong buying activity, particularly in those boom and bust markets, where prices have declined significantly. Buyers are coming in and fighting over properties -- there is multiple bidding in California and Florida."

"Sales are the first indicator" of a bottom, concurs Elliot Eisenberg, a senior economist with the National Association of Home Builders. "Even though there's more pain to come in certain markets and the prices may go down further and there's more defaults ahead," sales are going up, he says.

Bob Curran, managing director at Fitch Ratings, is a lot more cautious, noting that one month of gains doesn't make a trend -- existing home sales are still off 3.5% from a year ago. "You'd want to see a string of months -- ideally three months -- to say with confidence that a bottom has been reached," he says.

Buying off the bottom

Much of the recent sales increase is related to distressed homes, as a stampede of homebuyers snap up properties in foreclosure or through short sales on the cheap. "Foreclosure sales have picked up pretty dramatically in the past four months," says Alex Barron, a senior research analyst at Agency Trading Group Inc. Yun estimates about 50% of current sales involve distressed properties, and he expects this trend o continue as foreclosures soar in the months ahead. About 2 million properties were in foreclosure in 2008, and he expects this number to climb to 2.5 million this year.

The foreclosure floodgates are expected to swing wider in the second half of the year as rates reset on option ARMs, and high unemployment triggers defaults on prime mortgages. Many of the option ARMS issued over the past few years were in markets that saw the biggest run-up in home prices and are now seeing the biggest corrections.

At the end of the first quarter, one out of eight U.S. households with a mortgage was either late on its monthly loan payment or in the foreclosure process, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Jay Brinkmann, chief economist with the MBA, says defaults among prime mortgages accounted for 50% of the increase in foreclosures in the last quarter. The pending flood of foreclosures could mean buying opportunities for bargain hunters -- as long as they're prepared to hang onto the house for a number of years. "If you're a renter who just missed this cycle and didn't get in, right now is a great time to buy if your issue is the monthly mortgage payment," says Burns.

Although prices may fall further, low mortgage rates and President Obama's $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit make current prices attractive, especially in heavily-beaten down areas, such as California, Arizona, Nevada and California. "I think there are great deals out there," says UBS analyst David Goldberg. "But you have to have a long-term time horizon." Some speculate that the pending surge in foreclosure and recent uptick in mortgage rates could push fence-sitting homebuyers, worried about rising rates, to jump into the market. Also, some home seekers may rush to score a bargain before the Obama Administration's $8,000 credit for first-time homebuyers expires at year end. The tax credit has already helped to boost sales, especially in states, such as California, which are offering their own tax credit in addition to the federal one, says Curran.

Sales vs. prices

While sales may be increasing, home prices are a different story, in part because of rising interest rates and surging unemployment. The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage climbed to 5.59% last week -- its highest since Dec. 11 -- but retreated slightly to 5.38% this week, according to Freddie Mac. The nation's unemployment rate spiked to its loftiest level in more than a quarter of a century in May at 9.4%. Burns is predicting the jobless rate will hit 12% by 2011.

National home prices plunged 19.1% in the first quarter, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller National Home Price index -- the biggest quarterly decline in the index's21-year history. Home prices are off 32% on average from their peak in mid-2006. Average prices have not been this low since the fourth quarter of 2002, the Case-Shiller report says.

"We're about two-thirds of the way through the pricing correction on a percentage basis," says Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist with MFR Inc., an economic consulting and analysis firm. He expects prices to slide at least another 20% over the next 18 months.

"There's still pain to come in parts of Florida, California and Michigan, where there's still a tremendous amount of oversupply," says Eisenberg. "Prices will have to come down further and it will take a while to burn off the excess inventory that's floating around there."

Brinkmann expects to see prices start to rebound in 2011. While a bottom may be reached within the next year, it will be many months, and possibly years, before prices significantly come back. "I think that once prices bottom out, they're going to stay flat for several years," says Burns.

By Janet Morrissey, contributor

June 19, 2009: 4:23 AM ET

Fortune magazine

Green Market Data

· Solarbuzz states that “solar energy demand has grown about 25 percent per annum over the last 15 years” and “the United States market showed a 33 percent growth in 2006”. (Napa Valley Register, March 2008)

· Research firm Clean Edge sites that “worldwide sales specializing in biofuels, wind farms, solar panels and fuel cells grew 40 percent in 2007.” (San Francisco Chronicle, March 2008)

· “5 to 10 percent of all housing starts by 2010 will be of green certified construction.” (Napa Valley Register, March 2008)

· Sales of existing single-family homes are on the rise, modestly. Sales rose by 0.5 percent in January, compared to the previous month. This would translate to an adjusted annual rate of 4.34 million homes in January - up from 4.32 million in December, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors. (Ventura County Star, March 2008)

· The value of green building construction starts was expected to exceed $12 billion in 2007, according to a national study by McGraw-Hill Construction Analytics. (Battle Creek Enquirer, April 2008)

· In 2006, approximately 2 percent of U.S. homes were built using green components, according to the McGraw Hill Construction SmartMarket Residential Report 2006, accounting for $7.8 billion in housing spending. That statistic is expected to increase to 10 percent of the market by 2010. (Des Moines Register, March 2008)

· Retail sales in green buildings are 20 percent higher, and their value is increased by 7.5 percent, according to Ashley Katz, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Green Building Council. (Ft. Collins Coloradoan, March 2008)

· According to a 2007 National Association of Home Builders survey, 63 percent of buyers are motivated by the lower operating and maintenance costs that come with energy and resource-efficient homes. (Environment News Service, March 2007)

· Energy Star appliances use ten to fifty percent less energy and water than standard models. (Energy Star, 2008)

· A study prepared for the Massachusetts Technology Council found that buildings credited with "LEED" status (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design)--a designation given by the U.S. Green Building Council based on how well a green building reduces its energy use and environmental impact--uses on average 25% to 30% less energy than conventional buildings and cost, on average, only 2% more to build. (Forbes April 20, 2007)

· The U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC) is an incredible nonprofit resource for architects, designers, engineers, general contractors, subcontractors, and others committed to expanding sustainable building practices. USGBC’s mission is to transform the way buildings and communities are designed, built, and operated, enabling an environmentally and socially responsible, healthy, and prosperous environment that improves quality of life. (Canvas Magazine, February 2008)

· Overall costs for new green construction vary based on the type and amount of green features, but are typically about 2% higher than conventional buildings, according to cost-benefit studies by Capital E, a Washington-based energy-efficiency consultant. (Wall Street Journal, May 2007)

· Using an energy-efficient furnace or boiler could save you $570 annually, according to the Department of Energy. (Smart Money, January 2008)

· While the average U.S. home lost 5.7% of its value in 2007, eco-friendly homes have held their value, even appreciating in price. Come sale time, a green property typically appraises for 10% to 15% higher than comparable conventional homes according to Jim Amorin, vice president for the Appraisal Institute, a professional trade organization. (Smart Money, January 2008)

· Green homes are expected to account for 10% of new home construction in 2010, up from 5% in 2005, according to McGraw-Hill Construction, a market researcher. (Smart Money, January 2008)

· Almost 9 out of 10 consumers surveyed in 2004 by the National Association of Home Builders said they have some degree of concern about the environmental impact of building their home. Seventeen percent said they’d pay more for an environmentally friendly home, and 46 percent—up from 35 percent in 2003—want an environmentally friendly home but aren’t willing to pay more. (Realtor Magazine, October 2005)

· Buildings account for nearly 40 percent of total U.S. energy consumption and 12 percent of water use. U.S. Green Building Council, September 2007 (Energy Star, Spring 2008)

· Membership at the Association of Energy and Environmental Real Estate Professionals has also grown enormously according to John Stovall, vice president of business development for the nonprofit group. (Money and Investing Magazine, August 2006)

· In 2005, the number of home builders focusing on green building in the U.S. rose 20% and those ranks are expected to swell by another 30% this year, according to a recent survey by the National Association of Home Builders and McGraw Hill Construction. (Money and Investing Magazine, August 2006)

· The value of the residential green building market is estimated between $19 billion and $38 billion by 2010, up from $7.4 billion in 2005, according to the National Association of Home Builders. (Money and Investing Magazine, August 2006)

· More than 10 percent of new homes last year were labeled Energy Star, says Steve Baden, head of the Residential Energy Services Network (RESNET). (Newsweek, December 2006)

· The average U.S. household with four people generates between 30 and 40 tons of carbon dioxide a year, depending on elements such as its type of heating fuel, according to the federal Environmental Protection Agency's carbon calculator. (Denver Post, August 2007)

· Producing homes that are 30 percent more "green" or energy-efficient than elsewhere in the nation, California's home builders are putting up homes that are also 70 percent more energy-efficient than homes built in the 1970s and 1980s, according to the California Building Industry Association. (Realty Times, September 2007)

· Demand for green housing has been growing — 46 percent of buyers would like a green home, according to an August report by the National Association of Realtors on home buyers’ preferences — but supplies are limited. (New York Times, November 2007)

· In a nationwide survey of Certified EcoBrokers, 20% reported working with a client to complete a major cost-effective retrofit that significantly reduced energy bills. (Times Herald-Record, April 2008)

· According to the United States Green Building Council (USGBC), there are more than 70 of these local or regional green home building programs in America. (EcoBroker International, Inc., February 2008)

· An ENERGY STAR qualified light [bulb or fixture] prevents more than 400 pounds of greenhouse gas emissions over its lifetime, the equivalent of keeping nearly 200 pounds of coal from being burned. (Energy Star, 2008)

· The market for green homes is expected to boom from $7.4 billion to $38 billion by 2010, according to the National Home Builders Association. (Times Herald-Record, April 2008)

· Green friendly home improvements will likely yield a solid return on investment come selling time as almost three quarters of Canadians (72%) say they will look for a green-improved property in their next home purchase, and 63 per cent will be willing to pay more for an environmentally friendly home, according to the Royal LePage Eco Home Survey released today. The joint Royal LePage National Association of Green Agents and Brokers Eco Home Survey, which examines the attitudes and opinions of Canadians with respect to green living, found that Canadians are willing to pony up cash for greener home features. In fact, 62 per cent of respondents are willing to pay between $5,000 and $20,000, for green features, while eight per cent (8%) of respondents are willing to spend $20,000 or more on a home deemed green. (www.foodshedplanet.com, April 2008)

· According to the National Association of the Remodeling Industry survey, 46 percent of American homeowners claim they would be eager to incorporate green principles into their homes, especially if it would save them money. Experts estimate one can generally save 20 to 30 percent on energy costs with $4,000 to $8,000 worth of improvements.

· The average household spends some $1,500 each year on energy bills. By choosing ENERGY STAR certified products, consumers can cut this by 30%, saving about $400 each year. (Energy Star).

· Energy cost increases is the number one trigger cited by home builders when considering building green homes. (McGraw Hill, 2006)

· More than half a million U.S. families, 40% more than 2004, now live in Energy Star qualified homes and are saving about $110 million annually on their energy bills. (Energy Star, 2005)

· According to the McGraw Hill SmartMarket Report 2006, 2% of homes built in the U.S. were built green. The value of this marketplace is approximately $7.8 billion. Given forecasts of the housing market and other trends, the green homes market is expected to increase to 10% by 2010. (McGraw Hill, 2006)

· Americans purchased more than 300 million ENERGY STAR qualified products in 2006 (Energy Star, 2007).

· According to the National Association of Home Builders, when 800 registered voters were given a list of motives for either purchasing a new green home or remodeling their current home to make it greener, nearly two-thirds (64%) identified “reduced energy costs” as an important factor, followed by “because it would be healthier,” and it’s “the right thing to do for the environment.” (www.nbnnews.com, November 2007)

· Green homes are gaining in popularity and can make a property more desirable in a slow housing market. According to a new report released from Carbon Free, “Stemming from growing concerns among the public, governments and businesses, there has been a steep increase in demand recently for knowledge about green building practices, and as more light is shed on the heavy impact buildings have on the climate, Carbon Free expects the green building to push forward and grow despite the cooling of the rest of the housing market.”

· Green home building products are gaining ground, according to a report produced jointly by McGraw-Hill Construction and the National Association of Home Builders.
The major findings of the report conclude:

o The market for green homes is expected to rise from $2 billion to up to $20 billion over the next five years.

o Standard homes are becoming increasingly green, with home owners using green products for 40 percent of their remodeling work.

o Most Americans find out about green homes through word-of-mouth, followed by television and the Internet.

o Green home owners are happy with their homes and are recommending them at rates significantly higher than recommendation levels of other industries.

o Home owners are buying green homes because they are concerned about the health of their families, as well as to reduce energy and other home operating costs.

o Education and awareness of green ranks as the most important obstacles, slightly higher even than the additional first costs associated with building green.