My Marin Blog

Aren’t you tired of hearing all this “gloom and doom” stories about the real estate, the rates and the state of the economy? I know I am!

I refuse to accept it because I see a BIG picture.  Change is the only constant thing. This too shall pass.  We know that real estate is cyclical. Those who are fortunate to have had a foresight and purchased real estate as an investment years ago, will agree with me.  Look at any ten year chart and you will see the curve; either up or down. It’s not all about location and condition. It is also about timing. Timing has a lot to do with the appreciation. Often, however, it is difficult to predict when to buy and when to sell. Unlike the stock market, when one buys either their primary home or an investment property one has to be prepared to hold on to it between five and seven years in order to see the appreciation and possible positive cash flow. In a grand scheme of things it is by far safer investment than a stock market. So go ahead and explore your options.  The timing is perfect for buying. The Feds will keep the rates appealing and the mortgages accessible to the buyers so they can get off the fence, get loans at the decent rates and stop paying rent. There are tons of pocket markets out offering huge potential for appreciation, such as Novato and even further North of San Francisco. Novato real estate market is saturated with condos and SFH. In a few years this market will rebound and buyers’ investment in their home or the will double… guaranteed. If you wish to know about the interest rate and what’s going on…read on…

LAST WEEK IN REVIEW
 Yep, it is hard to go broke taking profits off the table...and this is exactly what Bond Traders did last week, pressuring Bond prices lower and causing home loan rates to rise by about .125%, as money moved out of the Bond Market.

Remember that conforming home loan rates are tied to Bonds or "Mortgage Backed Securities" - so when Traders sell off Bonds, it causes the Bond price to go down, which in turn causes home loan rates to rise. And although most of last week's economic news was "Bond-friendly", and should have resulted in higher Bond prices and lower home loan rates, Bond Traders decided to sell some holdings and lock in their recent gains instead, ahead of what could be a volatile week of market action.

The Federal Reserve is meeting this coming week, and will release their highly anticipated Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement on Tuesday at 2:15pm ET. So do you know what is expected from the Fed, and how their actions might save you money right away? Read on and learn, in the upcoming Forecast for the Week.

FORECAST FOR THE WEEK

The economic calendar thickens up considerably this week, giving a read on manufacturing, inflation and housing...but many of these reports will take a back seat to the Fed's Policy Statement and Interest Rate Decision, to be released on Tuesday afternoon. Traders are forecasting a 100% chance of a Fed rate cut. About half the traders are expecting a cut of ¼%, and the others expecting a cut of ½%. Of perhaps greater importance is tone of their highly analyzed Policy Statement. Comforting words about inflation will help bonds and home loan rates.

Remember that a cut to the Fed Funds Rate would impact the Prime Rate, which affects Home Equity Lines of Credit, credit cards, business loans, car loans and the like - but does NOT have a direct correlation to home loan rates. For example, if the Fed should cut the Fed Funds Rate by .25%, you would likely see a change to your Home Equity Line of Credit by .25%, if it is tied to the Prime Rate as most are - but do not expect regular home loan rates to drop correspondingly, as the Fed's take on inflation will guide the way.

Stock prices have a history of doing well after the Fed begins to cut rates. Since 1985, there have been seven initial rate cuts by the Fed. During the year following the initial Fed rate cut, the S&P 500 has gained an average of +13.7%.

So get off your fence and start exploring your options. Call me if you want to meet informally and talk about homeownership and investment opportunities out there. You’ll be glad you did.

Victoria Wells -415.464.3380 Http://www.marinbesthomes.com

I want to give you your annual update on what your home is worth.

I want you to be one of the few who are informed. You know the genuine value of "home and hearth," but do you know the dollar value of your house—or how much of that value belongs to you? A number of key decisions can be more wisely made with the benefit of this knowledge.

• Is your home adequately insured?

If disaster were to strike, would your insurance cover the losses? In California, a state known for wild real estate escalations and wild fires, many devastated homeowners have learned the hard way that their homes were underinsured.

• Is your estate plan based on a realistic estimate of your home’s worth?

Assuming you have provided a means for your assets to be distributed upon your death, will your plan minimize the tax burden your heirs may face? Underestimating home equity could force loved ones to sell the family homestead to cover inheritance taxes.

• Could your home mean more to your family than safety and warmth?

Could home equity be put to use in financing your children’s college education? Funding a business? A more active retirement plan? Home improvements?

• Do you know how to measure the value of your home?

A Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) is an important tool that provides current pricing of homes in your style in your area. With a recent CMA and knowledge of your home’s condition relative to others that have tested the market, you can know an accurate dollar amount for your home.

Pre-holiday time is a good time to get an idea how much is your home worth.

Victoria Wells/ Broker Associate

Coldwell Banker, Greenbrae

415-464-3380 Http://www.marinbesthomes.com

September 2007

The mortgage credit markets are going through an unprecedented liquidity crunch brought on by many factors, but mainly attributed to lack of controls in the sub-prime and Alt-A mortgage market. Over the course of the past several weeks, we’ve seen many lenders, both well run companies and not so well run companies, forced to close as liquidity tightened and loan buybacks increased. We’ve seen major lenders and investors eliminate loan programs, stiffen qualification standards, and raise rates on jumbo loans. At this point no one can determine the extent to which this liquidity crisis will continue, nor what the exact impact will be on the Northern California housing market.We are confident that with time the credit markets will stabilize.

With many homes for sale, finding the right one could be a little like sailing he sea without a compass. The drive from one open house to another takes time, and even the most diligent seeker will miss opportunities. There are many more homes available on multiple listings that an individual may ever know about.

Real estate agents have access to all of these homes. They can assess a buyer's needs and wants and determine which listings could fill the requirements.

After that, several homes with the right square footage and in the right price range can be viewed in an afternoon or two.

Factors the agent takes into consideration include the area that interests a buyer, how long various homes have been on the market, whether owner and the buyer or seller may later recommend the agent to others, and either party may buy another house in the future. With negotiation, a favorable deal can be created for both parties. The agent knows whether the property owner has room to negotiate and what the buyer's limitations may be. It could be a perfect fit.

For more information on buying or selling real estate please contact:

Victoria Wells

415-464-3380 Direct  or email vawells@comcast.net

Http://www.marinbesthomes.com